SOLUSI PT BORNEO
Sales Forecasting
Model Time Serie Moment
| Tahun | Sales (Y) | Tahun (X) | XY | X2 |
| 1 | 1.200 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 1.600 | 1 | 1.600 | 1 |
| 3 | 2.400 | 2 | 4.800 | 4 |
| 4 | 2.800 | 3 | 2.400 | 9 |
| 5 | 2.500 | 4 | 10.000 | 16 |
| Jumlah | 10.500 | | 24.800 | 30 |
| 6 | | 5* | | |
åY = a.n+b.å X Ü 10.500= 5a+10b(X2)=21.000 =10a+ 20b
åXY=a.åX+b.åX2Ü24.800=10a+30b(X1)=24.800=10a +30b
------------------------
-3.800 = -10b
b= 380
10.500 = 5a + 10b Ü 10.500 = 5a + 10(380) Ü a = 1.340
Y = a + bX Ü Y = 1.340 + 380(5*) = 3.240 unit.
Price Forecasting
Model Time Serie Least Squares
| Tahun | Sales (Y) | Tahun (X) | XY | X2 |
| 1 | 9,20 | -2 | -18,4 | 4 |
| 2 | 9,80 | -1 | -9,8 | 1 |
| 3 | 9,40 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 9,60 | +1 | +9,6 | 1 |
| 5 | 9,90 | +2 | +19,8 | 4 |
| Jumlah | 47,90 | | +1,2 | 10 |
| 6 | | +3* | | |
a = åY/n = 47,90/5 = 9,58 b = åXY/å X2 = 1,2/10 = 0,12
Y = a + bX Ü Y = 9,58 + 0,12(3*) Ü Y = 9,94
(1)
SOLUSI PT BORNEO
Direct Material Costs Forecasting
Model Time Serie Moment
| Tahun | DMC (Y) | Tahun (X) | XY | X2 |
| 1 | 1,30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 1,70 | 1 | 1,70 | 1 |
| 3 | 1,40 | 2 | 2,80 | 4 |
| 4 | 1,60 | 3 | 4,80 | 9 |
| 5 | 1,80 | 4 | 7,20 | 16 |
| Jumlah | 7,80 | | 16,50 | 30 |
| 6 | | 5* | | |
åY = a.n+b.å XÜ 7,80= 5a+10b(X2)=15,60=10a+20b åXY=a.å X+b.å X2 Ü16,50=10a+30b(X1) =16,50=10a +30b
------------------------
-0,09 = -10b
b = 0,09
7,80 = 5a + 10b Ü 7,80 = 5a + 10(0,09) Ü a = 1,38
Y = a + bX Ü Y = 1,38 + 0,09(5*) = 1,83.
Direct Labor Costs Forecasting
Model Time Serie Least Squares
| Tahun | DLC (Y) | Tahun (X) | XY | X2 |
| 1 | 1,80 | -2 | -3,60 | 4 |
| 2 | 1,90 | -1 | -1,90 | 1 |
| 3 | 1,70 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 1,95 | +1 | +1,95 | 1 |
| 5 | 2,05 | +2 | +4,10 | 4 |
| Jumlah | 9,40 | | +0,55 | 10 |
| 6 | | +3* | | |
a = åY/n = 9,40/5 = 1,88b = åXY/å X2 = 0,55/10 = 0,055
Y = a + bX Ü Y = 1,88 + 0,055(3*) Ü Y = 2,045
(2)
SOLUSI PT BORNEO
Klasifikasi Biaya Overhead Operasi (BOP)
Model: Least Squares Correlation
| Thn | Sales  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 1 | 1.200 | 1.650 | -900 | -690 | 621.000 | 810.000 |
| 2 | 1.600 | 2.150 | -500 | -190 | 95.000 | 250.000 |
| 3 | 2.400 | 2.350 | 300 | 10 | 3.000 | 90.000 |
| 4 | 2.800 | 2.950 | 700 | 610 | 427.000 | 490.000 |
| 5 | 2.500 | 2.600 | 400 | 260 | 104.000 | 160.000 |
| Jml | 10.500 | 11.700 | | | 1.250.000 | 1.800.000 |
Sales
rata-rata = 10.500/5 = 2.100
rata-rata = 10.500/5 = 2.100Biaya Overhead Operasi 
rata-rata = 11.700/5 = 2.340
rata-rata = 11.700/5 = 2.340
b = 1.250.000/1.800.000 b = 0,69444 (VC) Y = a + bX 2.340 = a + 2.100(0,694) a = 882,60 (FC)
Y6 (BOP thn ke enam) = 882,60 + 0,694(3.240) = 3.131,16
Biaya Pemasaran (BP), Model High Low Point
High sales volume = 2.800 Rp 5.800
Low sales volume = 1.200 Rp 3.150
Selisih = 1.600 Rp 2.650
b = Rp 2.650/1.600 = 1,65625
Y = a + bX 5.800 = a + 1,65625(2.800) a = 1.162,50
Y6 (BP thn ke enam) =1.162,50 + 1,65625(3.240) = 6.528,75
(3)
SOLUSI PT BORNEO
Klasifikasi Biaya Adminstrasi (BA)
Model: Least Squares Correlation
| Thn | Sales | | | | | |
| 1 | 1.200 | 4.900 | -900 | -2.090 | 1.881.000 | 810.000 |
| 2 | 1.600 | 6.100 | -500 | -890 | 445.000 | 250.000 |
| 3 | 2.400 | 7.250 | 300 | 260 | 78.000 | 90.000 |
| 4 | 2.800 | 9.100 | 700 | 2.110 | 1.477.000 | 490.000 |
| 5 | 2.500 | 7.600 | 400 | 610 | 244.000 | 160.000 |
 | 10.500 | 34.950 | | | 4.125.000 | 1.800.000 |
Salesrata-rata = 10.500/5 = 2.100
rata-rata = 10.500/5 = 2.100Biaya Administrasi rata-rata = 34.900/5 = 6.990
rata-rata = 34.900/5 = 6.990
b = 4.125.000/1.800.000 b = 2,29167 (VC)Y = a + bX 6.990 = a + 2.29167(2.100) a = 2.177,49 (FC)
Y6 (BA thn keenam) = 2.177,49 + 2,29167(3.240) = 9.602,50
Struktur Biaya
Jenis Biaya VC FC
Direct material costs 1,83000 -
Direct labor costs 2,04500 -
Factory overhead 0,69444 882,60
Marketing expenses 1,65625 1.162,50
Administrative expenses 2,29167 2.177,49
Total 8,51736 4.223,59
(4)
SOLUSI PT BORNEO
Anggaran Statis tahun 6
Perhitungan Laba-Rugi
Sales 3.240 unit @ Rp 9,94 ....................................... Rp 32.205,60
Variable cost 3.240(Rp 8,51736)............................... Rp 27.596,25
Contribution margin..................................................... Rp 4.609,35
Less fixed cost ........................................................... Rp 4.223,59
Operating profit ........................................................ Rp 385,76
Anggaran Fleksibel
Sales volume 2.000 unit 3.000 unit 4.000 unit
Sales value @ Rp 9,94 19.800 29.820 39.760
VC @ Rp 8,51736 17.035 25.552 34.069
Contribution margin 2.765 4.268 5.691
Fixed costs 4.224 4.224 4.224
Operating profit (1.469) 44 1.467
Titik Impas dan Margin of Safety
Tititk impas:1. FC/(1-VC/S) = 4.224/(1-8,51736/9,94)= Rp 29.514
2. FC/CMPU = 4.224/(9,94-8,51736) = 2.969 unit
3. FC/CMR = 4.224/0,14312 = Rp 29.514
Keterangan:
CMPU = contribution margin per unit
= P -VC = 9,94 - 8,51736 = 1,42264
CMR = contribution margin ratio
= 1-(VC/S) = 1-(8,51736/9,94) = 0,14312
Sales 2.969 @ Rp 9,94 Rp 29,514
VC 2.969 @ Rp 8,51736 Rp 25.288
Contrvbution margin Rp 4.226
Operating profit ………… Rp 2 (akibat pembulatan)
Margin of safety = (Sales actual - Sales BEP) / Sales actual
(2.500 - 2.969)/ 2.500 = -0,1876 atau -18,76%.
(5)
SOLUSI PT BORNEO
Laba-Rugi
Full Costing
Sales 2.500 unit @ Rp 9,94 ……………………....... Rp 24.850,00
Production 2.600 unit
Variable production cost
2.600(1,83000+2,04500+0,69444)=
2.600 (4,56944) …………………………… = 11.880,54
Foh fixed costs ……………………………. = 882,60(+)
Total manufacturing costs ………………… = 12.763,14
Inventory 100(12.763,14/2.600)…………… = 490,89(-)
Cost of goods sold ………………………………… Rp 12.272,25(-)
Gross profif on sales ……………………………….. Rp 12.577,75
Marketing expenses: 1,65625(2.500) +1.162,50 … Rp 5.303,13
Adm. expenses: 2,29167(2.500) + 2.177,49 ……… Rp 7.906,67(-)
Operating profit (loss) …………………………….. (Rp 632,05)
(6)
Direct Costing
Sales 2.500 unit @ Rp 9,94 ...................................... Rp 24.850,00
Production 2.600 unit
Variable production cost
2.600(1,83000+2,04500+0,69444)=
2.600 (4,56944) ................................... = 11.880,54
Inventory 100(4,56944 ........................ = 456,94
Variable cost of goods sold ....................................... Rp 11.423,60
Gross contribution margin .................................... Rp 13.426,40
VC marketing expenses and administrative
expenses 2.500 (1,65625+2,29167) Rp 9.869,80
Contribution margin ......................... Rp 3.556,60
Less fixed costs .................................. Rp 4.223,59
Operating profit (loss) direct costing ................. (Rp 666,99)
Operating profit direct costing .................................. Rp 666,99
Operating profit full costing ....................................... Rp 632,05
Different .................................................................... Rp 33,94
Nilai persediaan full costing ...................................... Rp 490,89
Nilai persediaan direct costing ................................ Rp 456,94
Selisih ........................................................................ Rp 33,95
Keterangan:
Selisih laba operasi full costing dan direct costing harus sama dengan selisih nilai persediaan full costing dan direct costing. Hal itu disebabkan karena pengaruh biaya tetap overhead pabrik. Pada full costing biaya overhead tetap menjadi beban harga pokok penjualan dan sebagian beban persediaan barang jadi, sedangkan pada direct costing seluruh biaya overhead tetap menjadi beban (expenses) yang diperhitungkan pada rugi-laba.
(7)
SOLUSI PT BORNEO
Perhitungan Rugi-Laba
Model Direct Costing :
Sales 3.240 unit @ Rp 9,44 ...................................... Rp 30.586
Biaya produksi:
Material 3.240 X 1,83 ............................. Rp 5.856
Labor 3.240 X 2.045 .............................. Rp 6.626
Factory overhead 3.240 X 0,69444...... Rp 2.250
Harga pokok produksi variable ................................. Rp 14.732
Marjin kontribusi kotor ................................................ Rp 15.854
Biaya usaha variabel:
Biaya pemasaran 3.240 X 1,65625 … Rp 5.366
Biaya administrasi 3.240 X 2,29167… Rp 7.425
Jumlah biaya usaha variable .................................. Rp 12.791
Marjin kontribusi ......................................................... Rp 3.063
Biaya tetap ................................................................ Rp 4.224
Laba (rugi) usaha ....................................................... (Rp 1.161)
SOLUSI PT BORNEO
Model Full Costing :
Sales 3.240 unit @ Rp 9,44 ...................................... Rp 30.586
Biaya produksi:
Material 3.240 X 1,83 .............................. Rp 5.856
Labor 3.240 X 2.045 .............................. Rp 6.626
Factory overhead 3.240 X 0,69444 ....... Rp 2.250
Factory overhead tetap ............................................ Rp 883
Harga pokok produksi full costing ............................ Rp 15.615
Laba kotor atas penjualan ..................................... Rp 14.971
Biaya usaha:
Biaya pemasaran (3.240 X 1,65625) + 1.163 ........ Rp 6.529
Biaya administrasi (3.240 X 2,29167) + 2.177 ....... Rp 9.602
Laba (rugi) usaha (Rp 1.160)
Keterangan: laba operasi full costing dan direct costing sama jumlahnya bila tidak ada persediaan barang jadi.
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